Atlantic Hurricane Season 2026 Storm Names

316
FXUS62 KMLB 082357
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
757 PM EDT Tue Sep 8 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Tue Sep 8 2026

- A wet weather pattern persists through this week. The main storm
  hazard will continue to be the potential for locally heavy
  rainfall that could lead to mostly minor flooding. Otherwise,
  the potential exists for frequent lightning strikes and strong
  wind gusts up to 50 mph.


- Muggy conditions and seasonably hot temperatures in the upper
  80s to low 90s will continue, with peak afternoon heat indices
  in the triple digits, but below Heat Advisory criteria.

- There is Moderate risk of rip currents at all area beaches again
  today. Remember, always swim near a lifeguard and never swim
  alone.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Tue Sep 8 2026

Currently-Tonight... KMLB radar imagery shows general onshore moving
scattered showers and lightning storms across east central Florida.
GOES-16 satellite imagery and local observations show partly to
mostly cloudy skies over east central Florida. Local temperatures
are currently in the mid 80s to low 90s with dew points in the mid
70s to around 80F degrees. The 10Z XMR sounding shows plenty of
moisture in place with a PWAT of 2.20", in addition to MidRH at
85% and LowRH at 83%. However, instability and bulk shear are
relatively weak. Analysis charts show a stationary boundary
across central Florida to the south of Cape Canaveral.

Scattered to numerous showers (~40-70% chance) and lightning
storms are forecast to increase in coverage into this evening with
collisions between onshore flow, in addition to the west coast
sea breeze over the western interior, as well as outflow from
previous storms. Rain chances are forecast to gradually diminish
around 9PM. However, isolated to scattered onshore moving showers
and lightning storms are forecast near the coast through the early
morning on Wednesday. The potential exists for isolated strong
storms capable of occasional to frequent lightning, wind gusts up
to 40-50mph, and heavy rainfall (up to 1-3" in 60 minutes). For
this reason a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall exists for much
of east central Florida today mainly along and south of the
Orlando metro. Above normal lows (~1F-3F+) in the low to upper
70s are expected.

Wednesday-Thursday... An active week of weather is expected with
onshore flow in place coupled with a weak stationary boundary over
east central Florida or to the north through Thursday. Scattered
to numerous showers/lightning storms are forecast to develop each
afternoon and evening. The greatest coverage of the shower and
lightning storm activity is expected between 12pm-8pm. East-
southeast winds at 5-10mph are forecast each afternoon and
evening. The potential exists for isolated strong storms capable
of frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 40-50mph, and heavy
rainfall (up to 1-3" in 60 minutes). Afternoon highs in the upper
80s to low 90s and lows in the low to upper 70s are forecast. A
Moderate HeatRisk with small pockets of Major HeatRisk across
northern east central Florida is forecast each day.

Friday-Monday... A return to a more typical sea breeze pattern is
expected with the Bermuda high forecast to build west over the
southwest Atlantic through the forecast period. Numerous to
widespread showers (~70-90% chance) and lightning storms are
forecast to develop each afternoon/evening as collisions occur
between sea breezes, as well as outflow from previous storms. Rain
shower and storm chances reduce to 50-80% on Sunday and 50-70%
Monday. Near to above normal high and low temperatures in the
upper 80s to low 90s and low to upper 70s are forecast.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Tue Sep 8 2026

Currently-Wednesday... Favorable boating conditions are expected
outside of showers/lightning storms with onshore flow in place. Scattered
generally onshore moving showers and lightning storms are
forecast this afternoon and evening, as well as on Wednesday. The
potential exists for a strong storm capable of wind gusts greater
than or equal to 34kts. Expect south-southeast winds at 6-12kts. Seas
to 1-3ft nearshore and 4ft offshore (up to 5ft over the offshore
Volusia county waters) are forecast.

Thursday-Saturday.... Favorable boating conditions are expected to
continue outside of showers/lightning storms. East-southeast winds
at 5-10kts are forecast to veer south-southwest each night. Seas
to 1-3ft nearshore with up to 4ft over the southern Brevard to
Treasure Coast waters. Scattered generally onshore moving showers
and lightning storms are forecast each afternoon and evening. The
potential exists for a strong storm capable of wind gusts greater
than or equal to 34kts.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 740 PM EDT Tue Sep 8 2026

VFR conditions outside of convection. ISO SHRA continue INVOF
KMCO/inland terminals through around 02Z. A weak front stalled
across Central Florida will support onshore moving SHRA overnight,
higher chances from KTIX-KDAB. Can`t rule out some of this
activity making it to KMCO/Orlando terminals. Early start
(16Z-19Z) of ISO-SCT TS/SH forecast for Wednesday. Highest chances
near to west of KMCO/KISM-KLEE as weak onshore flow favors a sea
breeze collision over the interior towards the western side of the
peninsula. Most TAF sites should also benefit from an early end to
convection, but activity could linger INVOF of the aforementioned
terminals after 00Z. Winds ESE-SE 5-10 kts, becoming light/VRB at
times overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  77  89  76  90 /  30  40  20  50
MCO  75  92  76  92 /  30  60  20  70
MLB  77  90  78  91 /  20  40  20  40
VRB  75  89  76  89 /  20  40  20  40
LEE  76  91  76  91 /  30  60  30  70
SFB  75  91  76  92 /  30  60  20  70
ORL  76  91  76  92 /  30  60  20  70
FPR  75  89  76  89 /  20  50  20  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Fehling
AVIATION...Haley

NWS SJU Office Area Forecast Discussion